How much damage can a major solar eruption cause? The life-giving sun, like a living organism itself, is powerful dynamic force, constantly changing and evolving. Periodic eruptions of solar material emerge from layers below the surface and blast out into space. While it’s a “big-ass sky”, (Armageddon, 1998) that receives them, sometimes these clouds of plasma, or Coronal Mass Ejections, (CMEs) line up with Earth, causing impacts that range from imperceptible to catastrophic. Strategies to prepare for the landfall of a “solar storm” range wildly, depending on the likely impact.
Coronal Mass Ejections
Normally, CMEs occur between 0.2-3.5 times per day, depending on the current phase of the 11-year solar activity cycle, and about 10% of these are Earth-directed. These CMEs raise the background level of solar particles the sun emits, called the “Solar Wind”, and are detected by radio telescopes and other sensors, but have negligible impact to the Earth environment.
Aurora Borealis
The Aurora Borealis, also called the “Northern Lights”, is caused by the shape of the Earth’s magnetic field, which pushes the high energy particles that make up the “Solar Wind” out to the North and South magnetic poles, where the field is weakest. When Earth-directed CMEs arrive the additional volume of charged particles puts pressure on the magnetic field, causing Aurorae to be visible at lower than normal latitudes.
Geomagnetic Storms
However, a few times per generation we get hit by a greater than normal particle burst, which can have a significant effect in localized areas that catch the brunt of the impact. Such CMEs occurred in 1921, 1972 and in 1989, when an X-15 class solar flare launched CMEs that knocked out power in the Quebec-area grid for 9 hours.
The Carrington Solar Storm of 1859
Even more powerful, we have the example of the Carrington event. This solar storm was preceded by a massive solar flare, witnessed separately by astronomers Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson, who had been monitoring an increase in sun spot activity. This is the first recorded instance of a visible solar flare, and the accompanying CME was the cause of electrical impacts observed in the following days, when telegraph operators reported electrical effects in their equipment: electric shocks, ability to send messages without connecting to power, and even fires from overloaded electrical circuits. It is estimated that the Carrington CME was the most powerful Earth-impacting solar event that has been seen in the modern era. Such an event today is likely to take out large portions of the power grid, the communication infrastructure, and the satellite network.
Miyake Events
But history may hold a secret that is even more unnerving. Recent studies of tree ring samples find evidence of major solar events through the sudden massive influx of Carbon-14, the element created by the solar energy interacting with carbon on Earth, that is at the heart of radiocarbon dating process. Correlated with arctic ice core samples finding spikes of Beryllium (another solar-induced element) within similar windows. Known as Miyake events, these spikes are hypothesized to be evidence of solar super storms of such intense magnitude that they dwarf the Carrington event. We don’t yet know if these are inexplicably massive CMEs, or a period of intense activity, where CMEs bombard the Earth for a sustained period.
Tree rings and ice cores may not be the only place these catastrophes have embedded themselves in history. Geologist Robert Schoch has postulated that plasma events may have been preserved in human recorded history, in iconography and script. His analysis of the Rongo Rongo script of the Easter Island culture, as well as art preserved in cultures across the globe finds apparent commonalities with shapes displayed in high-energy plasma experiments. Could these cultures have been trying to pass a message to their offspring?
How to prepare
Since the impacts of a solar storm vary widely in intensity, it makes sense to classify the difference in terms of the preparations that make sense, as well. The first step would be to increase your awareness of the problem, and begin to monitor it. Fortunately it takes many hours (impacts from Carrington were estimated to begin 14 hours after the observed solar flare) for the cloud of magnetic particles to arrive, so early warning is a real possibility. Civilian solar weather notification systems are already in place. Follow the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center on X (formerly Twitter) to get started with this, and I recommend @spacewxwatch on as well.
In 2013, a report by Lloyd’s, for the purpose of evaluating impacts to the insurance business, found the East Coast at the highest Geomagnetic storms risk in the US, with 40 million people at risk of losing power anywhere from 14 days to more than a year, with power losses leading to loss of critical services, and widespread disruption of civil order. Since at least 2016, there has been finalized guidance to power companies in the US to put overload mitigation systems in place, to prevent an incident like the one in Quebec, but it is unclear how widespread the upgrades have been.
Cell phones, Radios, and WiFi will go dark during a Geomagnetic storm, and may fail as a result of the transient electrical fields shorting out essential circuitry. Smaller electronics, especially unplugged, battery-powered devices are less at risk. Consider storing your backup communications devices in a Faraday Bag, to create an EMF shield around these critical devices. This is a great one to store your handheld HAM radios or Walkie-Talkies in your essential grab-and-go supplies. See my post
Top 10 Essential Home Preparedness Items for ANY Disaster
to get your essential preparation out of the way.
Once-in-a-generation CME (less than “Carrington”)
This type of event may knock out local power in particular areas, but is not likely to have a widespread impact. Having basic grid-down preparations (portable generator, flashlights, battery powered multi-band radio, etc) should suffice. Keep in mind that radios, wifi, and cell phones may experience disruptions due to to noise in particular EMF ranges.
Carrington-level CME
This every-few-hundred-years sized CME may do massive damage, due to our reliance on communication infrastructure and cheap electricity. Though hopefully global resources will be marshalled to get affected areas back on their feet, with supply lines and communications disrupted, it could be some time before anything like normal life can resume. If you live in a city you should make immediate preparations to Get Out of Dodge. The earlier you can be, the better you will avoid the rush to the food production and natural resources that are outside of the city. If you have indications of a major solar event, better to take the family camping and have it turn out to be no big deal, than to end up in an unnecessary crisis due to people who haven’t prepared.
Miyake Event
We don’t really know what a Miyake Event is going to be like, or how we will tell the difference between it and a run-of-the-mill Carrington-level super CME. Expect lightning and “super sunlight” full of dangerous charged solar particles. Speculatively, you may want to consider how you would shield from excessive solar radiation, provide electrical ground shock protection, (e.g. faraday cage) and robust fire protection.
If you have preparations in place for long-term survival after a nuclear conflict, you are probably well-equipped for any doomsday scenario, you may just want to think about how prolonged electrical storms on the surface would affect your plans. (Also, do you have room in your bunker?)
